Data Methodology
Every important number must show what it is, where it came from and whether it is observed, estimated, projected or modelled.
Status Labels
OFFICIAL — a direct statistical operation by an official authority. ESTIMATED — a calculated figure between official counts. PROJECTED — a scenario based on documented assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. NATION CONTINUITY MODEL — a proprietary model, never attributed to the UN, with stated assumptions and uncertainty ranges.
Source Hierarchy
Priority 1: UN DESA Population Division (World Population Prospects 2024), Eurostat, national statistical offices. Priority 2: World Bank, OECD and national ministries. Priority 3: peer-reviewed demographic research for gaps. We never use a news article as primary source when official data exist.
Zero Migration
UN WPP includes a deterministic zero-migration scenario using medium fertility and mortality with international migration set to zero from 2024. It is an analytical scenario, not a policy recommendation.
The 2126 Rule
UN WPP ends at 2100. Any 2126 figure is a NATION CONTINUITY MODEL, never attributed to the UN, and shows assumptions and a wide uncertainty range.
Sources
UN World Population Prospects 2024 — https://population.un.org/wpp/ · UN WPP Methodology — https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Methodology.pdf · Eurostat Fertility Statistics — https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/